Commercially offered · public forecast registry and review methodology; no resolved forecasts or paid engagements yet
NextConsensus
Estimates how likely a guideline, label, or coverage decision is to change by a set date.
I bring new AI capabilities through hospital review into products still in use after I leave. What I build now asks a second question: after a system works, can the people who depend on it still see how it decides, object when it is wrong, and change it?
AI product leader, engineer, and researcher · Chicago
Doximity Dialer, which I originated as founding product lead. Doximity’s own figures, February 2026.
Adoption may come before official approval only while the risk stays with the person choosing. When the risk is clinical, approval comes first.
A frightened person is not short of information. The scarce resource is attention and trust, so the product’s job is the next step and a person to call.
One system can carry many programs once every decision point has a named owner.
The record above is why these exist. Each project takes something people rely on and keeps it correctable: an estimate that resolves on a date, a permission that can be withdrawn, a source change that reaches the claims citing it.
Commercially offered · public forecast registry and review methodology; no resolved forecasts or paid engagements yet
Estimates how likely a guideline, label, or coverage decision is to change by a set date.
Experimental · open source, with a live demo and a roadmap that says what is not built
Distinguishes the tools an agent can reach from the actions it is authorized to take.
Live · open source, with a scheduled observation bot and a 15,926-event public test set
Refract Records when a source changed and what changed.
The standards and many of the essays ask the same question: would a system still look like it works if we stopped counting the people covering for it?
Research and essays
From a first-author ACS Symposium Series chapter on RNA thermodynamics to 230+ essays at The Crumple Zone on how institutions distribute burden, absorb failure, and decide who can exist inside them. Selected writing →
Proposed AI standards
I wrote Ethotechnics’ framework for recording approval, challenges, and corrections. ethotechnics.org
Whether a record can carry a real dispute end to end: an agent acts, a person challenges the action, and the correction reaches every decision that depended on it. NextConsensus, Refract, and Ambit are three parts of that test, and the record format is published as an open standard so others can check it.
If you run a system that depends on people covering for it, or you are building the record that would stop it, I would like to hear what you are finding. kanav@kanav.net
Revised